Assessment of Drought Occurrence and its Impacts on Rural Livelihoods in the Upper Ewaso Ng’iro Basin, Kenya

Abstract

Drought assessment is necessary for identifying adaptation and resilience measures for the livelihoods of the communities. There is therefore an urgent need for comprehensive research on drought impacts and adaptation strategies in the Upper Ewaso Ng'iro North Basin (UENB) in Kenya. The study assessed drought occurrence in the UENB aiming to provide insights into potential measures for safeguarding livelihoods in the region. This basin showcases varying regional characteristics, influenced by elements such as climate, environmental conditions, and human actions, all of which contribute to its multifaceted landscape and climatic fluctuations due to changes in elevation. This study assessed drought trends using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The data used in the study were monthly rainfall and monthly temperature data for ten stations in the basin for the period 1981 to 2020, 58 farmer surveys and key informant interviews. The results of SPI and SPEI demonstrated a 40% and 50% increase respectively in the severity of drought events in the UENB since 1999. Additionally, the study reveals that the SPI and SPEI indices differ in identifying temporal and spatial drought characteristics, with longer timescales showing improved accuracy. When modelling the indices, it was found that ANN performs well in the long term, and the accuracy decreases with a decrease in the time frame. Also, it performs better with SPEI than with SPI indicating a regression of 0.845 for SPI and 0.957 for SPEI. Farmer Surveys revealed that droughts affect the communities differently based on the geographical location. Farmers have encountered significant difficulties, with a noteworthy 45% experiencing total crop failure and 36% suffering substantial losses in livestock. Issues related to conflicts over water and grazing land have emerged as major concerns. Furthermore, a significant health issue has been the increased prevalence of malnutrition and the rise of pests and diseases affecting both crops and livestock. Different coping strategies have been employed: 50% of pastoralists have resorted to seasonal migration, while crop farmers have adapted by changing their crops (24%), and 30% have sought alternative employment opportunities. Despite the several adaptation strategies, they have proven inadequate. The study recommends integrating multiple drought indices for a comprehensive assessment. of drought in ASALS. The study also emphasizes on refurbishing existing water sources and implementing soil and water conservation strategies within the communities to alleviate the significant impact of limited access to water resources during drought.